Fresh Bilge

Charles Krauthammer is still fretting.

The gamble is enormous. In a stroke, McCain gratuitously forfeited his most powerful argument against Obama. And this was even before Palin’s inevitable liabilities began to pile up — inevitable because any previously unvetted neophyte has “issues.” The kid. The state trooper investigation. And worst, the paucity of any Palin record or expressed conviction on the major issues of our time.

McCain has one hope. It is suggested by the strength of Palin’s performance Wednesday night. In a year of compounding ironies, the McCain candidacy could be saved, and the Palin choice vindicated, by one thing: Palin does an Obama.

Obama showed that star power can trump the gravest of biographical liabilities. The sheer elegance, intelligence and power of his public presence have muted the uneasy feeling about his unreadiness. Palin does not reach Obama’s mesmeric level. Her appeal is far more earthy, workmanlike and direct. Yet she managed to banish a week’s worth of unfriendly media scrutiny and self-inflicted personal liabilities with a single triumphant speech.

Now, Obama had 19 months to make his magic obscure his thinness. Palin has nine weeks. Nevertheless, if she too can neutralize unreadiness with star power, then the demographic advantages she brings McCain — appeal to the base and to Reagan Democrats — coupled with her contribution to the reform theme, might just pay off. The question is: Can she do the magic — unteleprompted extemporaneous magic, from now on — for the next nine weeks?

This is the creak of a mind losing its elasticity. What McCain “forefeited” was a negative campaign based on the tired old claim of experience. Now he can run a positive campaign promising reform.

Hanna’s rainbands are coming ashore in the Carolinas. The storm is accelerating northward now. In the latest advisory, central pressure is reported at 981 mb, down six mb. Movement north at 20 mph. Hanna is almost a hurricane, and it will be at landfall. As I said earlier, look out, Cape Lookout. Hanna has recovered tropical characteristics. It has formed a new core, and it is feasting on the Gulf Stream. For a small area of the coast, right at the point of landfall, Hanna will be quite nasty. Watch the Wilmington radar.

The acceleration of forward speed means a stronger storm sooner for the Chesapeake Bay area. It is important for people to complete all preparations for protecting property before nightfall tonight.

Is it true that the West can “do very little” to stop Russia’s acquisition of a new empire through incremental conquests in neighboring states? So far, the only meaningful countermove has been the US to Georgia airlift, which seemed to thwart a Russian drive toward Tblisi. Explusion from G-8, sanctions on billionaires — there’s a long list of non-military responses, but Europe is too frightened of energy cut-off. Steve Forbes suggests that the best way to undermine Russia would be to bolster the dollar. Of course there are plenty of other reasons to do that.

Addendum: It’s been a bad week for the world’s stock markets.

I am watching imagery of Ike quite closely. There has been visible erosion on the north side of the circulation today. Northeasterly shear is pressing the storm and restricting outflow to the north. There is also some entrainment of dry air at mid levels. So far, however, Ike’s core remains intact; indeed there has been a bit of bounceback in the north eyewall during the last hour. The degree of weakening will be dependent on the resilience of the core. I shall be watching closely to see whether it breaks under the current stress or remains intact until conditions improve tomorrow. This process will be a key determinant for potential landfall strength in Florida.

The other big question is Ike’s course. It has responded to the pressure of upper winds by turning west-southwest. If it loses enough latitude, it will pass over waters churned and cooled by Hanna off the north coast of Hispaniola. If Ike stays a little further north, the “wake effect” of Hanna will be less. On the more northerly track, Ike would encounter very warm waters near Andros Island, and over the Gulf Stream during its final approach to South Florida. This would be the worst case scenario, with a potential for major disaster in the urban strip of Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

However the latest tracking (1200 UTC) continues to shift the consensus to the left. Now many projections take Ike near or over the Florida Keys into the Gulf. Because Ike is a fairly small storm, such a course would spare Miami and points north. Nevertheless I am continuing my preliminary preparations for hunker-down or evacuation, depending on which option appears more prudent by Monday.

If Ike enters the Gulf intact, without crossing land, it could be stronger at subsequent US landfall. However waters throughout the northeastern and north central Gulf are now cooler than normal, and would not provide enough energy to sustain a major hurricane approaching the coast.

Here’s what a community organizer does.

Here’s what a reformist governor does.

The Republicans’ VP nominee is arguably more qualified than the Democrats’ prospective President.

And the Republican Presidential nominee is wilier than I thought.

LA has opened a $350 million high school ten years behind schedule. Maybe it would have been wiser to improve existing properties. And wiser still to channel those funds into a voucher system. I was glad to hear McCain devote a passage of last night’s speech to the failure of state education, but talk is cheap. Real reform will take all the vehemence of Sarah Palin. As VP, she should get the E & E portfolio. Let her work on energy and education. These should be the highest national priorities.

Asymmetrical Hanna has most of its rainfall in a NE - SW axis, jutting back over South Florida, so it’s a very rainy morning here, with west wind and thick overcast — weird weather for this locality. The center of Hanna is generating a patch of strong convection north of Grand Bahama. With a boost from the Gulf Stream, it will probably be a minimal hurricane when it goes ashore near the border of North and South Carolina. From there it will curve northeast and sweep to New England as a rainy coastal storm.

Ike continues on course for a possible South Florida landfall by Tuesday. It is weakening a little from moderate shear, and will weaken more today, but it is still a strong and dangerous hurricane. If it does not dip too far south and get into Hanna’s track, or brush against the Greater Antilles, then South Florida landfall at category three or four is quite possible. The subsequent northwest curving track could take Ike to the NE Gulf, but it would be weakening and less of a threat there. South Florida is the high risk zone, under present scenarios.

I am watching the McCain speech, but not blogging it point by point. I will leave that to the political obsessives. Certainly the conventioneers are excited. They are hitting the applause lines with such fervor and frequency that they may keep McCain on stage past his bedtime — and mine.

Change is certainly the theme. But I weary of the relentless demand for altruism. Unlike the more relaxed Sarah Palin, both McCains, husband and wife, speak so much of social duties that they rouse my inner Ayn Rand. In such a context, the candidate’s talk of smaller government sounds like intellectual incoherance. But the story of war suffering, saved for the end, affords such a contrast with the “narrative” of Obama that it shuts Ms. Rand up, at least for awhile.

New models of Ike’s course are out (click the tracking link “featured” at upper right). The consensus continues to edge left, and models are quite closely bunched. A few edge so far left that they bring Ike to waters just north of Hispaniola, which have been heavily churned by Hanna for days. That course would definitely weaken what is presently a small but very intense hurricane. Ike would have a chance to restrengthen before a Florida landfall; but the more menacing path runs through the central Bahamas, which remains the consensus corridor. Some models repeat the calamity of Andrew for South Florida.

I am very concerned. Living in an exposed top-floor apartment with a lovely eastern view, I have no generator; and life here would be difficult indeed if power and other utilities collapsed for an extended period. I know Wilma damaged these units with water leakage. I would not want to hunker in any storm above category two. In my location east of US 1, evacuation will be mandatory at higher categories. But I have warned Steve that Ike could conceivably track across the upper Keys and hit Fort Myers harder than Fort Lauderdale. In that case I would stay put, not head north. This could be a tough decision.

Afterthought: Hanna is moving northwest, just off Abaco Island. The only strong convection in the storm is currently striking Abaco, and several squall bands have spun westward to the Florida coast in the last few hours. Hanna will continue toward the Carolinas overnight. If present convective configuration persists until morning, the storm could hit the coastal waters with more force than I expected. In fact, I was premature in writing Hanna off as a tropical system. It seems to be reforming a core, and I am now quite sure it will be a minimal hurricane at landfall. Look out, Cape Lookout.

Aftermath: BBC covers the woes of Haiti, hammered by Hanna.

Some historic moments are easy to recognize — generally the terrible ones. The good ones are often tougher to spot in real time. I think the emergence of Sarah Palin is a historic — and positive — moment in the political life of America. So does Peter Wehner.

Extra: Michael Reagan thinks his father has returned.

“Vulture funds” are ready to swoop down on Miami condos, if they aren’t all blown away by hurricane Ike.

South Florida is overcast with high clouds flaring off “tropical storm” Hanna. This hybrid cyclone is heading for the eastern Carolinas, but really rough weather will only occur near the coast, and it may stay entirely offshore, even if the surface low pressure center reaches the beaches.

Ike is being sheared by outflow from Hanna, and its core convection is no longer symmetrical, however it is still a category four storm — very serious indeed. I expect weakening from the shear. Ike will be diminishing tomorrow. I expect sustained winds to come down to around 110 mph. Later Ike will move through Hanna’s wake, and water will be less warm than before. But the Gulf Stream is plenty warm, and Ike’s landfall strength will be enhanced by a Gulf Stream crossing. I think Ike will be a major hurricane if it hits the East Coast, whether here or further north.

New models are out. Most of them place the center of Ike very close to South Florida at 120 hours. I just booked a room in Fort Myers. We’re getting out on Monday, if this thing is still on track.

China is not Russia. Well, duh! But the topic is worth pondering. Many fear an Axis of authoritarian regimes, led by China and Russia, will engage the “liberal democracies” in a potentially catastropic conflict. Count me among the skeptics. China is an energy consumer. It competes with the US for supply, but both nations need stable, secure energy markets — and continued trade with one another. These powerful shared interests probably will prevent the feared alignment from taking shape.

Russia, on the other hand, is an energy producer, run by a mafia that wants to maximize its take. There are some potential constraints on the behavior of such a regime — it needs customers, but it seeks to control the marketplace for its own benefit. If the US reduces its demand through increased domestic oil production and investment in nuclear energy, world petroleum prices will slump, and Russia will be hurt. This will weaken the hostile regime. It will also benefit our trading partners, China and India, which are both oil-poor.

That said, I want to link again Michael Totten’s exhaustive article on the truth about the Russian invasion of Georgia. The reportage is superb, and I believe that the Georgians were victims of a long-planned action. Ethnic issues are only an excuse. The pipeline corridor is the real prize. Russia does not need to occupy and rule Georgia, only to keep military forces deployed so close that the corridor could be shut in any confrontation with customers. It’s not war; it’s business as usual, for the Bear.

The weather is crystal clear for a second day at the volcano. This is a rarity in winter. It must be cold, too. Snow lies low on the peaks, and the winds throughout the lower atmosphere are blowing from the South Pole. As for the eruption: it has dwindled greatly, resuming its quieter character of the last month. A light-colored plume of steam with a little ash lifts from the dome.

No one can say what the volcano will do. Chilean authorities will have to watch their seismometers and hope for a respite, eventually. People of the region will gradually make difficult choices they deferred, as the eruption continues. A large area around and downwind of the volcano will remain essentially uninhabitable for as long as the ashfalls occur. At first there were hopes the eruptive cycle would end in weeks, then months. Now one must consider the possiblity that Chaitén could remain perilous for years to come, or even decades.

I could quote and link about fifty Sarah Palin articles this morning. Or I could tell you, briefly, what I think John McCain accomplished with her nomination, and what it may portend for the nation. Yeah, let’s do that, even at the risk of seeming foolish to some rare readers who may not share my enthusiasm.

For the past few days I have weighed my own reaction to Palin, which is overwhelmingly positive. Why?

There is another younger me that is horrified by Palin, and by the red-blooded, small-town American culture she represents. That me grew up gay (and deeply conflicted) in New York City. That me got an elite education and enjoyed all the privileges of the Sixties, including contempt for small-towners upon whom I projected a prejudice that I actually encountered in my urban milieu. I should be bluest of the blue, eh?

But I had odd affinities for a city kid. I was fascinated by the natural world: water, fire, earth, and air. I read about mountaineers and polar explorers; I soared into space with science fiction. So I fit poorly in both of America’s cultures, which were already fully apparent then: urban America that respected and envied Europe; rural America that had evolved its own culture and needed no other.

Affinity and chance took me to the Red River Valley of the North. I spent a quarter century in a cultural setting not unlike Alaska, and I travelled in the biggest state too. I understand and admire Sarah Palin. Northern climes do not allow for real dissolution of community. People must cooperate to survive.

In 1992 I bolted from traditional politics and supported the Perot campaign. In the space of a few weeks I met a lot of people I would never have encountered: military folks and hard-core social conservatives — people like the Palins. Tim and I were completely open about who we were. I was astonished at the lack of prejudice. There was ignorance, and even some curiosity, but no hostility.

If we had frightened them with effeminacy, or told them America was despicable, we would not have been well received. Instead we shared their pride in country, hope for its future, and determination to keep America free. And for the most part we meant the same thing when we said “free” — though we had some tough debates about the drug war.

The 1992 campaign finalized a lesson I had been slowly learning for the previous decade. I had brought a lot of mistaken assumptions from the city. The people of Red America were wrongly stereotyped, while the people of Blue America were understood and sometimes pitied by their country brethren. This is why Sarah Palin could be partisan with a smile. She doesn’t hate her foes; she is a Christian.

What is the significance of her nomination? Incalculable. Obama poses as “an agent of change,” but the most telling line of last night, for me, was Palin’s observation that the Presidency should not be a journey of self-discovery. Palin knows who she is; Obama’s whole life has been a quest for the inchoate self. He will never be satisfied; he will always want more, and never be sure what he wants more of. He may have more in common with his salesman grandfather than he understands.

The cultural contrasts of Obama and McCain are stark enough, but those of Palin and Obama are even more revealing, because these two are contemporaries: their clash will define America in the Twenty-First Century, while Biden and McCain are figures from a receding past. From this point on, it will really be Palin versus Obama. And she will win, because she is a formed and grounded grownup, while Obama is only a character in his own memoir.

I am so glad I have lived to see this moment in the nation’s history. For the last few years I feared that America was losing its heart, and its way. Now I have hope again, thanks one gutsy old fighter pilot, and a moose-hunting gal from Wasilla.

Tropical storm Hanna does not look at all tropical this morning. I need only glance out my window to see the extensive plume of high cloud that has formed in the western lobe of the system. Our sun is still caught in shadow over the ocean. But there is little convection in Hanna now, and it is widely scattered along an arc that resembles a nor’easter, exactly as I foretold this time yesterday, when I observed the upper low deepening near Hanna. If NHC were truly in the hurricane business, it would deem Hanna extratropical. Even if convection flares anew before Carolina landfall, this will never be a genuine, warm-core tropical cyclone again. It managed to throw off an upper low previously, but this stronger and fresher high-latitude system has taken over. For the coast, from the Carolinas northward, this will just be a warm version of a bad winter storm.

Ike peaked as a category four storm overnight, and winds are now estimated at 145 mph, but it has overtaken Hanna’s outflow, and it is visibly weakening in the latest images. I would expect a significantly diminished Ike through the next day, with winds dropping under 110 mph by tomorrow. Ike’s course has also shifted more northwest. I am glad to see Ike gain latitude, but I am not confident that the storm will fail to dip back again, as the offshore wind environment is shifting very rapidly. When a west or west southwest course sets up, Ike may also regain major hurricane status. This will be a very dangerous onset for the East Coast. Ike could make landfall anywhere from the Florida Keys to New England, depending on the exact time and pace of its recurvature, which is impossible to foretell at present.

Bottom line: I have a really bad feeling about Ike. Its early symmetry foretold rapid intensification. Its predecessor Hanna remains fairly weak, and will not use much of the available energy in waters off the eastern US. Ike is likely to strike some part of the eastern US with category three force or worse. Offshore recurvature is unlikely, though not beyond hope.

Hurricane Ike exploded in intensity this evening. This is always a risk with highly symmetrical systems, and Ike was perfectly formed before it even became a tropical depression. There is a sharp eye surrounded by deep convection, and sustained winds are now estimated at 135 mph. Pressure 948 mb. Models had not been projecting rapid intensification. This may imply changes in course projections as well. Intense hurricanes make their own environment, and are less easily shifted off course. Most models place the storm in the Bahamas at 120 hours.

On Obama: “The American Presidency is not supposed to be a journey of personal discovery.”

On McCain: “There is only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you.”

— Sarah Palin

Before we get to Yellowstone and Montana, here is another set of Fargo memories — long ago and far away.

What is that in Tim’s lap? Back-light is overwhelming, contrast too sharp, and it’s hard to tell. Here’s a clearer shot:

BOOOOOOTS! I would say in a low, gentle tone. The eyes might not open, but the ears would twitch. If I said it again, the purr might start.

BOOOOOOTS! I miss my cat, and my home. But there is no point pining for the past; better to cherish it, and paradoxically, let it go.

In April, 1993, I found an extra hand for the Orchard. I had a big project planned for the summer. Five years before I had used a new-fangled product called “solid-hide” stain on the house. It was supposed to provide a smooth, color-fast, “solid” surface, like paint, with a single coat, like stain. Actually it faded like stain and peeled like paint. I would have to strip, prime, and double-coat real paint on the house.

I would need at least one full-time and a couple of part-time employees, if I wanted to keep up with the mowing and pruning as well. There was a tall, willowy lad whom I had seen working as a server in a local restaurant. He also frequented the Moorhead bar where I sometimes had a few beers with straight friends. It was close to Moorhead State; students and faculty

The tall boy set off my gaydar, and one day at the restaurant I asked him whether he would like another job. I thought it would be more fun to hire a gay kid for a change. Of course he was thought I was just trying to pick him up, but I did persuade him to drive by the orchard. Then he realized I wasn’t kidding — or trolling.

Matt was an indifferent worker. He showed up late; and every new task daunted him. Afraid of heights, he refused to climb the scoffold; and I did the scary work myself, right to the top of the stairwell. But Matt was also funny and engaging, unlike the taciturn, laconic straight kids who had worked with me the previous seven seasons. He was such good company that I tolerated his foibles.

There I was, higher than Barnard Peak in Wyoming. I had reached the apex of my life. I knew no one could stay there indefinitely, but I thought descent and darkness were still far, far away.

I raced to get a final coat on the house in advance of the summer’s paramount social event at Orchard Glen — a grand garden wedding for two friends in the grain trade. Horace and Tanya hailed respectively from Jamaica and Ecuador. They were oddities in the Fargo business community, so the gay mansion was a perfect place for their nuptials. They had both been married before, far away, in other lives. Now for a time all our lives had converged.

The betrothed couple arrived in a stretch. Matt was the parking director, visible behind the car. In his yellow jacket, Tim greeted the guests.

Some chatted on the front landing, some on the roof deck, some in the back yard.

Everything was ready. The pavilions were pitched, the tables and chairs laid out, the food and drink arrayed. The guests took their places and the ceremony began. Horace and Tanya have seen a lot of troubles since then, but they are still together, and still in Fargo. Good for them.

Boots was so horrified by the uproar of the wedding that he vanished for several days. Two years later, on a warm summer evening, Boots marched into the dusk of the river-woods, his tail held high and proud as ever, though he had recently been mauled in a fight with a younger rival from Maple Prairie. He never returned.

Hanna’s course is running a little east of the earlier model consensus. It is heading almost due north and has not yet bent much to the northwest heading. The easternmost models of Hanna just clip North Carolina. Remember that the storm is asymmetrical — serious weather is east and northeast of the center. If the center barely reaches the coast, most of that weather will stay at sea.

Ike is very conspicuous on the satellite imagery. It is now a fully organized, intensifying hurricane with a distinct eye. It is also converging with Hanna’s large shield of outflow cloud, which has been displaced far to the east. Interaction between systems will begin soon. Ike’s course will bend a bit northwest. But the Atlantic storm off New England is now rapidly retreating past Nova Scotia. Hanna will make its run up the coast and follow. High pressure will very quickly build behind these systems. Then the course of Ike will supposedly bend back west-southwest, putting it in position to menace Florida. Sometime after that, the real righthand curve will commence. Before Florida, or after? Too early to tell.

Hanna is on the move at last, settling onto a northwest trajectory up the Bahamas. The asymmetry is already well established, with strong convection northeast of a complex center where several small vortices are rotating. Hanna should track directly toward the Carolinas through tomorrow. It will intensify, but remain asymmetrical. A few rain-squalls may skim the Florida coast, and it will be breezy here, but the main effects will be further north.

After Hanna gets out of the way, Ike will be rolling up behind. Some models now hint at recurvature off the Atlantic Coast. Let us hope. That could signal an early end to the high-risk part of the season for South Florida, with the likelihood of direct assault off the Atlantic dwindling as polar lows dig southward. Strong hurricanes can still form late in the western Caribbean and come at Florida from the southwest, as Wilma did, but they are usually much weakened by land interaction and shear before reaching here. Wilma was a fluke.

Florida taxpayers are revolting. But you knew that…

Orlando’s Rosen Center, scene of the “taxpayers’ summit,” was the host of the hematology convention where I met the British leukemia researcher, Dr. H., and the late P. K. Venkat, in December 2006. If hurricane Ike fulfills my fears, I may be arriving there on Tuesday, which is a good reason not to go on Saturday for the summit. Neither Steve nor I can afford a week in Orlando. I did just get the car back, and it is ready for the road, but it cost me $1k.

This is not a good time for political instability in Ukraine. Yushchenko and Tymoshenko might as well fight over portions of smoked salmon while camping in bear country. The feud between two pro-Western politicians endangers the whole of eastern Europe.

This is 2008 — a year of prodigies — and history has not ended.

Bonus: The truth about Russia in Georgia. Via Exit Zero.

Barring an unlikely meltdown on camera tonight, I think Sarah Palin will fare well. It is her critics who have come into sudden peril, exposing themselves as shrill, mean-spiritied, and puritanical. American leftists — especially the so-called feminists — have long projected those traits on their adversaries. Now they are Beethoven-deaf to what they are saying about Palin’s family. Peggy Noonan is at her best commenting on the nexus of culture and politics, and today she has a fine, impressionistic take on the events since Palin’s nomination. You could also read Thomas Lifson on Sarah Palin and the two Americas. Just when you thought 2008 couldn’t get any more remarkable, it did.

Afterthought: Message to the deaf: you chose your unlikely champion. Now we have done the same. Get used to it.

“Major ice shelf loss for Canada,” rails the BBC.

Twenty square miles. “Colossal!”

This is beyond advocacy. It’s comedy. Where is our Twenty-First Century Monty Python to lampoon these grotesqueries?

Check the webcam today. Weather is clear this morning, and the eruption has really ramped up. Plume is punching to at least 15,000 feet, and it is very heavy with ash. Winds are southerly, and ashfall will be moving into populated areas of Chile that have mostly been spared thus far. If a larger explosion should ensue in the next hours, there will be lots of trouble.

Update: 9:45 AM EDT: Eruption increasing. Plume height might be hitting 20,000 feet, with ashfall beginning to obscure view, even though wind is blowing away from camera. This is the most intense activity since June. There will be significant ashfall northward. Winds appear to be southerly up to rather high levels, though a stratospheric punch would probably head more northeast or east.

Update 2: 10:15 AM EDT: It’s getting difficult to discern the volcano as haze thickens. This is not a result of pyroclastic downflow. I have seen no sign of that. Rather it is the onset of a low level breeze from the NE, which is bearing some ash and dust back toward the camera, even as the main plume continues northward.

Update 3: 11:30 AM EDT: Pluming continues. A cap cloud formed briefly atop the plume and raced ENE with jet stream, confirming the direction of any major explosion today. But at present the mid-level ash plume is coursing NNW toward Puerto Montt, plainly visible in satellite imagery. If this level of activity persists another day, I will reinstate my “featured” page on the volcano, to make links more available.

Update 4: 1:30 PM EDT: Plume is dwindling and thinning. Weather remains clear — a rarity.

Tropical storm Hanna is now being tugged by a deepening upper trough. This in turn has jutted from a larger polar low that has been spinning fiercely off New England. The southwest-bound trough is plucking Hanna northward away from Hispaniola. Later, as an upper low cuts off near Cuba, Hanna’s course will turn more to the northwest. What NHC is not saying right now — perhaps to avoid any confusion among the public — is that ensnarlment with the polar system will almost certainly impart a high degree of asymmetry to Hanna. On satellite images it will look more like a hybrid storm, or even a nor’easter. This means that heavy weather will probably be displaced north and east of the center during South Carolina landfall. It will also hinder intensification. We can be confident that Hanna will only be a minimal hurricane. The model consensus turns Hanna rather sharply northeastward soon after landfall, as another polar system moves through the Great Lakes. Hanna will then sweep into the northeastern US as a powerful rainstorm, with strong winds along the coastal waters. Bottom line: plenty of inconvenience, minor damage. Storm preparations should commence on the Carolina sounds and up the Delmarva. Those areas may take the brunt of Hanna’s winds, which will blow from southeast and south as the storm center passes just inland. Tornadoes will also be a threat along the coastal plain.

Ike. What can I say? This beautiful, symmetrical storm continues its relentless march across the ocean. It will probably become a hurricane today. It has not yet formed a core, but it will soon be reaching warmer waters that will enhance intensification. I believe Ike will be very close to South Florida six days from now, as a major hurricane. Soon afterward it will begin to recurve, probably in the Gulf. Final landfall, at a wild guess, might occur near Mobile Bay. By that time Ike may be sheared and weakening. I do not expect a disaster in the Gulf, but South Florida could be in real jeopardy if the storm passes over land here. Some models bend Ike’s course west-southwestward to the north coast of Cuba — or even Hispaniola — sparing Florida the worst effects.

Jospehine looks like staying at sea and bothering no one. Well, almost no one. This is the kind of storm that sometimes swipes Nova Scotia or Newfoundland as it heads for the pole.

Hanna is making me loopy. At least one of the hurricane models, two days ago, projected a backward, cyclonic loop for Hanna’s course. I thought the storm’s track would bend down to eastern Cuba, no more; but I was assuming the shear would come from due north, as NHC was asserting. Actually the upper winds have been northwest, and the backward loop has actually occurred. Hanna is now drifting east and scraping the north coast of Haiti, where rains continue. I fear for that poor country — its red-dirt hills ripped every more deeply — a desert in dry season, a deathtrap in wet.

The backward loop surely diminishes threat to Florida. Hanna will presumably drift north in the morning, before it turns northwest. One can see the upper flow shifting now, as a new trough digs southwestward between Hanna and the US. This should mean a landfall further up the US coast — if Hanna ever escapes its impalement on Hispaniola.

Tomorrow night, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will find herself in the eye of a cultural hurricane. It will be an extraordinary and potentially historic moment in this bizarre campaign year. Today rare reader Steve S remarked on some racy Palin photos. I can’t resist elevating the link. Think what effect that image will have, loosed in the world. America’s enemies will find it profoundly disturbing. Vladimir Putin, last seen posing with a shot tiger, has been decisively one-upped. The competition between nations does not occur entirely at the level of armaments or economies. It also occurs in the realm of imagery, and the selection of Sarah Palin as VP nominee has loosed a whirlwind of the imagination.

I haven’t quit watching the South American volcano, though I haven’t done an update lately. The Chilean agency Sernageomin also went quiet for awhile. But a couple of days ago, I find via Werner Luis’ website, an important new statement was issued. I have not even had an opportunity to translate closely yet, but I can see reference to a sustained increase in seismicity, of several types, indicating magmatic movement and probable enhancement in eruptive activity. It might be worth checking the webcam tomorrow, though weather has been terrible most of the time lately.

I am too busy with hurricanes for much volcano blogging unless something major happens, but I will continue the sidelong glances at Chaitén. BTW, high hurricane activity in the Atlantic corresponds with cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation, and is not inconsistent with global cooling. Hurricanes derive their energy from the difference in temperature between ocean surface and the outer fringe of the atmosphere. If the whole system cooled, warm-core cyclones could still occur. Conversely, if the whole system warmed, cyclones would not necessarily become more frequent or severe.

Hanna continues to generate intense convection near and over Haiti. Deadly floods must surely be occurring. The heavy rains are displaced SE of the surface center by continuing wind shear at upper levels. Storm movement is essentially nil. Hanna may never become a hurricane again. If there were not such deep warmth in the waters of this area, Hanna would already have exhausted most available energy. Models have shifted slightly to the left, and are clustered through the northern Bahamas to Georgia. Such a track would skim Hanna along the coast right over the Gulf Stream. Again there would be deep warmth available to sustain the storm, while land interaction tried to weaken it. Again, excessive rain could result, although faster forward motion would reduce the duration of rainfall.

Ike has wrapped convection around its center today and intensified to a strong tropical storm. If this trend continues overnight, Ike could become a hurricane tomorrow. Ike will continue along a track near due west until some change in the larger weather pattern allows it to turn poleward. It is probable that recurvature will not occur before Ike gains enough longitude to hit some part of the US. However one model identifies a weakness in the ridge north of Ike, and turns it at sea. Looking at the satellite imagery, I can see Ike’s outflow already curling poleward, but NHC doubts the storm itself will follow, and so do I.

Josephine (named today) is still near Africa, so we will be watching it for a long time, even if it never comes near land. The life cycle of a storm generated in those waters sometimes runs longer than two weeks. This year a rare early-season storm named Bertha set a record for longevity. Long tracks are most common at peak season. Cape Verde storms are few after September. Most late season hurricanes form in the western Caribbean.

(1) When the light turns red, stop. (2) Do not leave three car-lengths to the next vehicle. (3) When the light turns green, go. Thank you.

Yes, I’ve been driving. A friend of Steve’s is visiting South Florida from Minnesota. Enrique has recently completed a thesis in electrical engineering. This is his celebration — he also met family members from Venezuela partway between Minneapolis and Caracas. We lunched late in the gracious Riverside Hotel off Las Olas, then I went to the north side of Fort Lauderdale on an errand. Oh, traffic. It took an hour and forty minutes from the time I left the Las Olas parking lot until I arrived at Ocean Club. Along the way, I met the usual contingent of Florida drivers, an intense rain-squall, and a final frisson from the police cars converging to the scene of some “incident” at a school near my apartment. Maybe the little dears mugged a bureaucrat. Now I’ll check on our tropical storms.

Hanna has been hammered by shear and squashed against the anvil of the Greater Antilles. Yesterday I was concerned about significant, possibly explosive intensification, because Hanna had become a hurricane despite adversity, and was expected to track NW. But I did include a caveat about possible land interaction. That has now happened. Hanna is weakening rapidly.

At this point I see three possible scenarios, in this order of likelihood: (1) NW track to US landfall as a minimal hurricane in Georgia or SC, as most models indicate; (2) overland weakening in eastern Cuba, and landfall in Florida as a tropical storm; or (3) complete dissipation from shear and land interaction.

I will be away for the afternoon, and may not post again until this evening.

Why no bounce? wonders Jennifer Rubin. Is it only because McCain deflated the opposition the day after its convention, with his cleverly timed VP announcement? Or is Obama’s demagogue-spell wearing off at last — not dramatically broken, but incrementally eroded by Rezko, Wright, Pfleger, Clinton, Biden?

Here is J. R. R. Tolkien, describing the cornered spellbinder, Saruman:

Suddenly another voice spoke, low and melodious, its very sound an enchantment. Those who listened unwarily to that voice could seldom report the words that they heard; and if they did, they wondered, for little power remained in them. Mostly they remembered only that it was a delight to hear the voice speaking, all that it said seemed wise and reasonable, and desire awoke in them by swift agreement to seem wise themselves. When others spoke they seemed harsh and uncouth by contrast; and if they gainsayed the voice, anger was kindled in the hearts of those under the spell. For some the spell lasted only while the voice spoke to them, and when it spoke to another, they smiled, as men do who see through a juggler’s trick while others gape at it. For many the sound of the voice alone was enough to hold them enthralled; but for those whom it conquered the spell endured when they were far away, and ever they heard the soft voice whispering and urging them. But none were unmoved; none rejected its pleas and commands without an effort of mind and will, so long as its master had control of it.

Before the ensuing parlay is over, Saruman does indeed lose control, and all can see his true nature. I believe the same will happen to Obama, when he realizes the prize is slipping beyond his reach. The shrillness over Sarah Palin — quickly repudiated by the candidate — was just the beginning. Ultimately, perhaps in debate, he will lose his temper and display open contempt for John McCain, war hero and lifelong servant of the commonweal. That will be the end of the tan man.

Disclaimer: I did not read this Spengler column before I wrote the post above.

BBC helpfully informs us how Russia’s “president” intends to conduct foreign policy. I link this article only because of a passage that perfectly reveals the self-deceived psyche of surrender.

President Medvedev’s principles do not, for example, necessarily exclude Russian agreement to continuing the strong diplomatic stance against Iran. And energy contracts are not necessarily threatened.

Need I say anything? Perhaps just this: the rest of the article evinces a superficial hard-headedness, but BBC correspondent Paul Reynolds neglects to mention any possibility of response, even a diplomatic one like dissolution of G-8. The omission is as revealing as the delusion.

My title refers to the famous line from the movie, Casablanca. John McCain’s campaign manager professes shock at the media’s treatment of Sarah Palin — and the Senator. Did McCain really believe the media treated him so well because he was a hero or a “maverick?” They adored him because they thought he was undermining the Republican Party. You know the old saying: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” If McCain expected anything but perfidy and deceit in coverage of him as Republican candidate for President, he was fooling himself. Maybe now he will understand the partisan depravity among his glad-handing foes, and beware of it.

Afterthought: In a way the coverage of the Palin family is worse than the basest partisanship, because the motive — as I perceive it — is disgust at anything wholesome, and a keen desire to defile it. This impulse comes from the darkest part of the human psyche, and it thrives on the moral relativism that pervades the journalistic “profession.”

Meteorologist Brian Neudorff has a good post on Ike’s formation and prospects. He quotes sources on some hurricane history. It seems that very few storms forming so far east and crossing the Atlantic at Ike’s latitude have ever made it into the Gulf — especially the western Gulf. Sooner or later these systems curl poleward. Normally Ike would be a candidate for troubling the East Coast, not the Gulf. But there is a big upper anticyclone crossing in tandem with Ike, to its north, and blocking any recurvature. I think Ike is all too likely to gain the longitude of Florida, but it may never pass the longitude of Mobile, AL. If you get my drift…

I rose later than planned, and I have time only for a brief look at the turbulent Atlantic. Hanna is still being squashed southward against the Greater Antilles. A mighty tide of air from Gustav and from a polar low off New England is keeping Hanna pinned in place. Yet the storm survives. Central pressure has dropped to 978 mb. Hanna has an eye, and appears more tightly wound, which is not surprising, since it is close to the mountains of Hispaniola. If it gets any closer, land interaction will commence, and even Hanna won’t fare well with that.

Models insist that a radical reorientation of upper wind is imminent. I wonder whether the transition will really come so quick. If anything, the shear against Hanna looks even stronger this morning. So I foresee some possibility of weakening today, which would mean a change in future intensity. Let us hope for that, because if Hanna stays over water and heads NW in a favorable upper environment, it will likely be a major hurricane at landfall.

Meanwhile Ike is marching along undisturbed in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, and behind it, at very low latitude, TD #10 has been designated. Whew. This is going to be some month for hurricane tracking.

Update: 8 AM EDT: Hanna is hitting NW Haiti. This was not modelled. Flooding rains and much loss of life could occur. Southward motion continues, according to the satellite imagery, or else the storm is becoming vertically displaced. I have not checked for surface circulation center on closeup visible image. The upper flow is too strong. We will have to totally rethink Hanna’s future. Weakening has already commenced. Pressure 987 mb. Winds 70 mph.

I paid a visit to Hollywood Beach late this afternoon. The sea was choppy, but the tide was out and lots of holiday visitors were still cavorting in the surf. No hurricane swell had yet reached these Bahama-sheltered waters. After sipping a Thai ice-coffee, I took a light supper at Luce and lingered long, alternately writing and chatting. When I got back to Ocean Club, the night had a creepy feel. Low clouds were racing overhead, and gusts of warm wind swooped through the palms. This is hurricane weather. It’s quite unmistakeable.

Hanna remains pinned against the Greater Antilles by the opposing upper flow, yet it continues to strengthen steadily, with latest pressure at 980 mb. I fear to think what will happen when this cyclone escapes the oppression of shear. A category four landfall is quite conceivable. But where? A trend may become evident by morning. Then Steve and I will have the day to prepare. If Hanna comes this way, we may head for Fort Myers. I would not want to be where this hurricane makes landfall, whether it’s here or Hatteras.

Amid all the hurricane blogging, I don’t want to abandon my travel recollections. Here is a more somber story for the series:

Tim and I had gotten into a rhythm of traveling each August for my birthday. In 1991, I planned another road trip to the Canadian Rockies. Rather than ride horses, we would paddle the length of a lake near Jasper to reach an embarkation point for backpacking. We borrowed a canoe from Tim’s brother, and I actually roped it atop the Bronco one fine afternoon. Unfortunately Tim had commenced his vacation with a liter of whiskey. While he snored, I seethed. Lines and knots were normally Tim’s task.

There was no summer trip in 1991. Instead there was an intervention, which failed, like the mandatory DUI program in 1983, and the month-long clinic-stay that substituted for a cruise among the Bahamas in 1998. But that story is told in Crusing with Catullus. I am nearing the berm between montaine and maritime recollections.

For this memoir, the next memorable moments came the following year, with our fourth and final pack-trip in the Wind River Range of Wyoming. I have no written or photographic record of the journey, only a few photo-clear recollections. I have already posted many images of prairie and mountains, some scanned from my own trove, some purloined from Panoramio.

The drive to Wyoming had become so routine that I cannot say for sure what route we took west this time. I’m pretty sure we drove over the Bighorn Mountains at Ten-Sleep on our return trip. Outbound we probably proceeded directly from Lander to the Big Sandy Entrance. Handsome wrangler Scott was still working for Bernie and Connie Kelly, though he had weathered a bit with his outdoor life — horseman in summer, surfer in winter.

We had a very simple plan — we wanted Scott to drop us and our gear at the head of Big Sandy Lake, about eight miles from the corrals. From there we would backpack up a southward step to another, higher lake that nestled under Haystack Mountain and East Temple Peak. After that we might make for the pass between Temple and East Temple, or even try the ridge above. East Temple was higher than Barnard Peak. An ascent would have surpassed our lifetime record, set years before.

Here is a photo of Deep Lake. Part of Haystack Mountain juts at the left edge of the frame. That angled peak is East Temple, the bigger mountain to the right is Temple Peak. Our campsite was just off the right-hand edge of the image, which is copyrighted to Willie Holdman. I hope he doesn’t mind, since I have at least given him credit.

The climb was not to be. We were getting too old and lazy. We pitched our camp on turf between bedrock outcrops of a slope facing the sunlit sidewall of Haystack Mountain. The bugs were awful: the worst I’d ever encountered in the mountains. We must have come at precisely the wrong time. Tim tried fishing, with his hood laced; I hid behind mosquito netting in the tent, about fifty feet above the lakeshore. I remember peering through the gauze, hearing the hum of the insects aswirl before me, and thinking this isn’t much fun.

Next day we were stiff and sore from the ride and the hike. We packed up our camp and crossed a saddle to another lake directly below Temple Peak. We were off trail, but there was no need for guidance in this open country. We dropped our gear by the highest lake, which was still half-frozen in August. The view was splendid, the weather fine, but somehow we never talked ourselves into making for the pass. Instead we rested and snacked, sipped water we had taken from some snowmelt rivulet, then turned our backs on the peaks. We spent that evening at another lake, near the mouth of the vale, with trees, shimmering blue-green water, more fish, fewer bugs, and a snapping campfire in a ring of stones.

We walked all the way out from there. It must have been a hard hike, but the recollection blurs into others. There were so many. I can almost feel the straps, the thump of boots on stony trail, the smell of resin on the air. Youth. It was almost spent.